With the 2010s coming to a close, we've been reflecting on the past decade... Has Australia progressed as a nation? Have we confronted the challenges and seized the opportunities of the 21st century? Have we kept the country’s future-making system up to date to serve current and future generations?
In a year of Royal Commissions, scandals, and unprecedented bushfires, a look at the long-term data paints an interesting picture. In 2007, 11% of Australians expected their lives in three to four years to be worse. This had almost doubled to 19% in 2017 (Mapping Social Cohesion Report). Meanwhile, only 25% of Australians in 2019 believe that people in government can be trusted - a record low (ANU’s Australian Election Study).
"Modern politics has become egos jockeying for power - it's about power, not leadership." Chloë Spackman, Director of Programs on ABC TV's Q&A program
Ten years ago, in the final months of 2009, Australia ended the decade as the only major economy to avoid recession during the Global Financial Crisis. However, despite almost 30 years of uninterrupted economic growth, as the end of 2019 approaches economic uncertainties loom, as CEDA labels 2019 "the year of uncertainty", while our data shows that the cost of living continues to top Australians’ list of concerns. In 2010, 28% of Australians believed that the financial situation of Australia had improved over the past year, dropping to just 18% in 2019. Economy-wide labour productivity grew by just 0.2% over the 12 months to June 2018 (the latest period analysed by the Productivity Commission) compared with an average of 1.7% for the period 1974-75 to 2017-18, meaning that recent economic growth has “reflected input growth rather than ‘doing things better’.” Meanwhile, real wage growth has stagnated: “the degree to which nominal wages outpaces the prices of goods and services ... is the lowest since the mid-1980s.” Indeed, the MYEFO just released by the Federal Government has downgraded wage growth from 2.75% to 2.5%.
Across the ocean, an analysis of IMF data shows that the Asian economy will become "larger than the rest of the world combined" from 2020 onwards in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). While Bloomberg reports that China's contribution to global growth is expected to rise to 28% by 2023. This comes as no surprise – experts have been pointing to the Asian Century for many years. But, it might surprise you that in 2019, only 130 Australians of non-Chinese heritage speak Mandarin proficiently. That is not a typo.
"It's high time the political parties updated their ideologies to be relevant to the 21st Century, not the 20th, and compelling to all generations." Ralph Ashton, Executive Director, on SBS Viceland
Just as historically low trust in government, sluggish economic growth, and poor engagement with Asia are national concerns as Australia moves into the 2020s, so is the environment. The importance of global warming in voter decisions increased by almost a half over the last decade - from 30% in 2010 to 47% in 2019. The Department of the Environment and Energy's Greenhouse Gas National Inventory shows that Australia’s unadjusted emissions in the 2009 calendar year were 593 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent, dropping to 539 million tonnes in 2018. However, since reaching a 15-year low of 530 million tonnes in 2015, Australia's emissions have increased each year since. Furthermore, The Australian Conservation Foundation reported in 2018 that Australia is leading the world in extinction rates, with three vertebrates going extinct since 2009. With a backdrop of unprecedented bushfires burning out of control across NSW, Queensland and West Australia, it's easy to see why concerns about climate change and the environment remain top of mind for more than half of voters.
"Serious and honest action on climate change is a great opportunity for politicians on all sides to rebuild trust with the community, to show the community politicians are listening to the people and show the public that politicians care about the long-term outcome." Ralph Ashton, Executive Director, on NINE News
In the 2019 Australian National Outlook, the CSIRO highlights six specific challenges ahead - the rise of Asia, technological change, climate change and environment, demographics, trust and social cohesion. The report emphasises that a flourishing future is within Australia's grasp, but that long-term thinking across sectors and disciplines - coupled with significant action - is required.
This is precisely the challenge the Australian Futures Project was established to confront. Australia has much to be proud of. With 30 years of economic growth under our belt, a world-class public service, and enviable cities, ecosystems, and liberties, there is no reason why Australia cannot create and maintain a future-making system that secures an increasing quality of life for current and future generations – consistent with both Australians’ values and aspirations and experts’ advice about the realities of a changing world.
Australia needs to create the right conditions to enable good future-making, so as a community we can successfully navigate the opportunities and challenges in front of us. Until short-term thinking is confronted, long-term issues such as housing affordability, tax reform, Indigenous equality, environmental degradation, and chronic illnesses will remain unsolved. Australia’s prosperity is at stake. Every Australian has a role to play.
"We need to reframe the conversation as it's urgent and we need to start from a place of possibility." Chloë Spackman, Director of Programs on ABC TV's Q&A program
We are Australia's only non-profit, non-partisan organisation committed to ending short-termism. We take a systems approach, focusing on root causes rather than symptoms. We gather insights about the future-making system, and work with the system to shift discourse, create solutions, and provide our expertise to support aligned organisations.
2019 labelled the year of “uncertainty” in Australia - what comes next?